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On Geopolitics

the peace pakistan cannot afford to miss
Three economic windows opened the moment the Iran deal was signed. Every one of them runs through Balochistan. A clear-eyed look at what Pakistan…
 • Adil Husain
America's Real China Trade Problem Is Hidden in Plain Sight
Trump is in Beijing negotiating planes and soybeans. The structural barriers shutting America's most competitive industries out of China's market are…
 • Adil Husain
overcoming the stalemate problem
What Hormuz, TikTok, and Nippon Steel reveal about how standoffs actually end, and the diagnostic every strategy team should run before assuming time is…
 • Adil Husain
the math of the impossible deal: a playbook for the pakistani mediators
The US is playing brinkmanship. Iran is playing attrition. Pakistan has to restructure the game entirely. A game-theoretic breakdown of what has to…
 • Adil Husain
The Chokepoints Nobody Is Watching
Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. China weaponized rare earths. Those are the chokepoints everyone is watching. But there are others that have already…
 • Adil Husain
The Crisis in the Gulf and Kuala Lumpur's Moment
Dubai's risk premium is rising. Singapore and Riyadh get the attention. The more interesting option may be neither.
 • Adil Husain
Dubai's Future and the Relocation Mirage
The long-term damage to Dubai as a business hub is not an exodus. It is a quiet, compounding loss of marginal investment and location decisions. The…
 • Adil Husain
Four Strategies, One Conflict
A strategic analysis of the Iran war through the lens of game theory. A 'stacked game' with four actors, each with their own strategic logic. Is this…
 • Adil Husain
America Is Acting. The Advantage Is Still Compounding Elsewhere.
The U.S. is moving aggressively on oil, minerals, and geography. China is compounding advantages in manufacturing and energy systems. History shows what…
 • Adil Husain
Why Venezuela will not be “Open for Business”, Yet
Political shocks create activity, not sustainable markets. The history of regime change shows who moves first, who waits, and who pays for getting it…
 • Adil Husain
the overmatch trap
Why America Cannot Win by Playing China’s Game. Restoring parity is a familiar response in periods of relative decline. The instinct is understandable…
 • Adil Husain
the overmatch brief
A classified U.S. study on China’s rising capabilities shows how a dominant position erodes when the structure of competition shifts. The same logic…
 • Adil Husain
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